ECE/TIM/DP/6 UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS ETTS V WORKING PAPER PROJECTIONS OF FOREST PRODUCTS DEMAND, SUPPLY AND TRADE IN ETTS V TABLE OF CONTENTS

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Timber Section
Geneva, Switzerland

by Anders Baudin and David Brooks

UNITED NATIONS

New York and Geneva, 1995

ETTS V WORKING PAPERS

This is one of a series of papers to accompany the fifth study of European timber trends and prospects (ETTS V). The ETTS V Working Papers contain material which is too technical, too detailed or too voluminous for inclusion in the main study, such as results and projections by country or methodological discussion.

ETTS V was prepared in a two stage process:

• sector-by-sector analysis, based on the work reported in the Working Papers;
• creation of unified scenarios, after a consistency analysis.

It was sometimes necessary to modify the sector-by-sector data in order to get a comprehensive but internally consistent scenario for the forest and forest products sector as a whole. For this reason, although the ETTS V scenarios are based on the analysis in the Working papers, not all the results correspond exactly. Readers are referred to ETTS V itself for an explanation of the methods used.

Although prepared as part of ETTS V, the Working Papers are the responsibility of their authors.

Further information about ETTS V, and other documentation is available on request from the ETTS V
coordinator,

UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS

The objective of the Discussion Papers is to make available to a wider audience work carried out, usually by national experts, in the course of ECE/FAO activities. They do not represent the final official output of the activity (which is normally issued as a UN-ECE/FAO Timber and Forest Study Paper), but a contribution which because of its subject matter, or quality, or for other reasons, deserves to be disseminated more widely than the restricted official circles from whose work it emerged, or which is not suitable (e.g. because of technical content, narrow focus, specialised audience) for distribution as a Study Paper.

In all cases, the author(s) of the discussion paper are identified, and the paper is their responsibility. The ECE Timber Committee, the FAO European Forestry Commission, the governments of the authors' country and the FAO/ECE secretariat, are in no way responsible for the opinions expressed and the facts presented in the discussion paper.

In the interests of economy, Discussion Papers are issued in the original language only. They are free of charge and available on request from the secretariat while stocks last. They are distributed automatically to nominated forestry libraries and information centres in member countries. Those interested in receiving these Discussion Papers on a continuing basis should contact the secretariat.

Abother objective of the Discussion Papers is to stimulate dialogue and contacts among specialists. Comments or questions should be sent to the secretariat, who will transmit them to the authors.

Preface by the secretariat

Understanding and projecting the forces which will influence production and consumption of forest products is one of the most important parts of ETTS V, along with forecasting developments for the forest resource. ETTS V has relied on advanced econometric analysis to carry out this task for Western European market economies. This document presents the projections for consumption, production and trade of forest products for the period to 2020, based on the modeling work reported in ECE/TIM/DP/5.

This pathbreaking work has been carried out by Messrs. David Brooks (USA) and Anders Baudin (Sweden). Their work was essentially financed by their national governments and home institutions, with a relatively minor contribution of resources from FAO and ECE. The secretariat takes this opportunity to express its thanks to the two experts, their institutions and the governments of Sweden and the USA for their contribution to this international cooperative study.

Hyperlinks to non-FAO Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-FAO sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

Projection conditions

Projection method

Summary of results

Appendix

Appendix 1:
Projection methods

Appendix 2:
Summary tables

Some facts about the Timber Committee

UN-ECE/FAO Publications

PROJECTIONS OF FOREST PRODUCTS DEMAND, SUPPLY AND TRADE IN ETTSV